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February 23, 2013
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The end of the Republican Party

:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 23, 2013
Very interesting article posted by Yahoo! News

You need to follow the link to play with the interactive tool to see how the voter base changes and how dire it looks for the regressive conservative party.


By Chris Wilson

Just to get out ahead of the pack a little, Iím going to go ahead and call the 2020 presidential election for the Democrats.

I'm less sure about 2016, though it's not looking good for the GOP. These forecasts are based on extremely simple math: Take the current rates of turnout and party preference for the four major racial and ethnic groups and plug them in to the Census Bureauís population projections for the 18-and-over population for the next 50 years.

Predictions are easy to mock. In recent elections, however, partisanship by racial and ethnic background has remained highly predictable in the face of countless calamities. The demographics of the electorate are going to change so rapidly in the next eight years that politics will seem unrecognizable, but these party loyalties may very well be intact. This fact is not difficult to recognize whatsoever.


I do not know how to embed that interactive scale into DA journals, maybe someone could do that for the DA Political Forum Club for more in depth conversations?
:icondapoliticalforumclub:

On topic

Until the Republicans and their insurgent Tea Partiers stop being the party of 'No' and drop the overt religious zeal and oppression they're not going maintain influence as the Nation changes around them.

The religious bureaucrats of the right are clearly losing power and influence as more States allow same sex marriage and GOP governors embrace Obamacare. But instead of changing with the times, they dig in and further alienate the larger voter pool to maintain favor with a dwindling zealous core.

The Republican Party is seemingly behind in many categories and are not playing catch up in most of them.

Gay equality: behind
Climate change: behind
Science: behind
Public education: behind
Taxes: behind
Immigration: behind
Voter access: behind
Women's health: behind
Healthcare: behind
Energy initiatives: behind (unless you consider drilling in National Parks an initiative)


:happybounce: [link] :happybounce:

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Devious Comments

:iconbtisaac:
BTIsaac Featured By Owner Mar 7, 2013
That's awesome. Does this mean the US will no longer have to bother with elections?
That would be the funniest thing I've seen in many years.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Mar 7, 2013
Nah. The conservatives will regroup.
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:iconaurontsubaki1985:
AuronTsubaki1985 Featured By Owner Mar 6, 2013  Hobbyist Traditional Artist
I hate to burst your bubble, but the republican party died during the Bush Administration.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Mar 6, 2013
I have no bubble.
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:iconhatchedfromtree:
HatchedFromTree Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013  Hobbyist Photographer
It's pretty sad to think that democrats may take over. I myself am not republican but rather a libertarian. I hope in the next few years more parties will rise which voice our peoples' opinions accurately. Its scary to think that one party might eventually rule the USA, they would have too much power and power is not necessarily a good thing. I foresee a civil war coming.
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:iconragerancher:
Ragerancher Featured By Owner Feb 28, 2013
I find it laughable how quickly Americans just to armed conflict being a result of their politics... No you won't have a civil war, other groups will come in and fill the gaps. Either the Republicans will change out of necessity or new parties will come. Ultimately if one party adapts and the other refuses to, then the one that refuses to should die out, just as with evolution.

The best solution would be to introduce a proportional representation system. Then new parties can come and go, split or form with much more freedom and still get a share of the vote.
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:iconhatchedfromtree:
HatchedFromTree Featured By Owner Feb 28, 2013  Hobbyist Photographer
I can agree with that! Proportional representation would be so much nicer.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013
The problems with the Democrats and republicans is the Democrats are less a pile of steaming shit than the republicans. Not too much difference.

Both would wreck the nation completely if given a chance, they'd just do it differently.

Seeing a civil war is just plain dumb.
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:iconhatchedfromtree:
HatchedFromTree Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013  Hobbyist Photographer
Well insulting people who reply to you forum post is plain dumb as well.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013
Nah.
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:iconanobu:
Anobu Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013  Student General Artist
Looks like someone is a little TO into politics. Dont people go outside more? What's up with that?
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013
Unless you're a landscaper or something like that, I am outside more then you.
The article writer? I have no clue how often he is outside.
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:iconchronorin:
Chronorin Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013  Professional Digital Artist
I sure hope so.

I'm a 34-year old hardworking white rural male -- the type of voter that the Republican Party ought to be getting. Yet because of how crazy they've become over the last two decades, i would rather whittle my d**k off with a carrot peeler rather than vote for a Republican.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013
Well the goods news is you can vote for third party candidates in most areas. You can keep the peeler for the carrots:P
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:iconchakatblackstar:
ChakatBlackstar Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013
The progressive faction always wins in the end. That is an inevitable fact in life.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013
Hopefully that trend continues
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:iconjackmolotov3:
JackMolotov3 Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013  Hobbyist Photographer
I don't know where to start with this ignominious mess of fail, and short sightedness.

"These forecasts are based on extremely simple math: Take the current rates of turnout and party preference for the four major racial and ethnic groups"
This is where the flaw in logic starts.

If at any point, the democrats had the nation so far under there thumb, the republics where doomed, it was in the 1960s, under JFK/LBJ.

You make the assumption the republicans simply won't change their politics overnight as a strategic move, or simply ignore things they've said 1 1/2 years prior. Because this is par for the course, and the democrats were pretty effective at doing this, and the republicans already have the talent in this field.

you may be correct, the republican momentum of 2010 has peaked, but by no means are the republicans out of the game.
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:iconmaryanneleslie:
Maryanneleslie Featured By Owner Feb 25, 2013  Professional Traditional Artist
Awesome ^_^ and true- the GOP as we know it is going extinct, no doubt. You can't fight progress.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013
Well you can fight progress, it just slows everything down for a while. Eventually the skeptics die off and their influence wanes.
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:iconkitsumekat:
kitsumekat Featured By Owner Feb 25, 2013
After 12 years, I think they're going hard.
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:iconmgonzales041090:
mgonzales041090 Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013  Student Traditional Artist
Is that a Viagra joke? <:
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:iconkitsumekat:
kitsumekat Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013
It can be.
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:iconmaddmatt:
maddmatt Featured By Owner Feb 25, 2013
There are more republican representatives in Washington right now than democrats.

Republicans own the majority of all state houses and governorship.

You think swing state presidential elections means extinction? If that were so Democrats would have been gone after 2000.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013
Right now means nothing.

Texas is 25% blue, right now.
Texas in 2020 and 2024 will be pushing the whole State blue.

It's all about paying attention to the details.

Some States, like Montana and the like, might stay red forever because of the populations. But the Dakotas with their energy boom, well they're going to swing blue too because of the people moving to those States for jobs.
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:iconmaddmatt:
maddmatt Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013
"Right now means nothing."

When?

[link]

Right now means something if you are using now to determine then.
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:iconhgwizard:
HGWizard Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013  Hobbyist Artist
I certainly believe that if the republicans don't change their ways, they will be run out and a new party will take it's place (most likely the Libertarians).

They need to flush out the Tea Party and they need to stop listening to idiots like Dick Morris. They think the only reason Obama won was because he was black, not because he was a better candidate than McCain or Romney.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013
The Libertarians are mainly Republicans already. So it's not going to be much of a change.
The Republican Libertarians are not real libertarians. They're still in the pocket of the rich and big business, they're still religiously attached to abortion prevention, they're still climate change skeptics.

Real libertarians are worse then far lefties, but maybe on par with far righties. Just like the other two camps, it's not a moderate centrist position that allows for compromise and cooperation.
Removing government agencies like the EPA and allowing the States to operate as majority rule mini-nations is an automatic disaster.
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:iconabcat:
AbCat Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013   Writer
Market forces that apply to businesses also apply to political parties. If the political demographic in the US moves left, the GOP will eventually smell the coffee and move towards the centre, and the Dems will move as far left as their electorate will let them. The US is too entrenched in bi-party politics to accommodate any other solution.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013
The GOP is still swinging right even after the last two elections went left. There has been no market change.
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:iconjackmolotov3:
JackMolotov3 Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013  Hobbyist Photographer
the last two presidential elections, you mean.

the 2010 congressional elections went in favor of the republicans, you know, the democrats had control over both houses before hand.

the republicans still have a majority in the house.
[link]
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:iconabcat:
AbCat Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013   Writer
If there had been no market change, they would have won.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013
No, they lost because there was no change on the GOP side.
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:iconabcat:
AbCat Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013   Writer
That's what I just said.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013
Oh:P

Maybe I read it wrong or I was cybering too much that day
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:iconscottahemi:
ScottaHemi Featured By Owner Feb 23, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
no...

no it is not... that's just the pipe dream of some swollen ego Liberals.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013
But how do you then explain away the changing demographics that are clearly seen in Florida and Texas?
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:iconscottahemi:
ScottaHemi Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
you're looking to far into it.

simple as that.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013
No.

Texas is going to be blue in Presidential elections by 2024.
That cannot be overlooked.
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:iconjackmolotov3:
JackMolotov3 Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013  Hobbyist Photographer
not necessarily. Thats assuming the democrats hold the hispanic vote until 2024.

Romney got 1/3 the Hispanic vote ignoring the population, and there are many prominent republican Hispanics, like Mark Rubio.

Reagan got the Hispanic vote in the 1980s when pandering to them. Its very obvious to any serious political observer that the republicans are very capable of winning the Hispanic vote, if they put the time in.

I think its clear your brain cannot process politics beyond cheering for your "team". This is getting more and more common.
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:iconscottahemi:
ScottaHemi Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
aside from the fact that 2024 is 11 years from now?

nice try but no.
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:icontortellinipen:
TortelliniPen Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013
The longer the GOP continues to have this view, the more that they will decline.
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:iconjackmolotov3:
JackMolotov3 Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013  Hobbyist Photographer
thank god you showed up, I was beginning to think it was going to be a circle jerk of people who can't proccess politics beyond the immediate two year election cycle.......

I'm sure we've had this conversation at least a million times in a million threads, and we've always wound up agreeing on the same major points.

As for the OP, I don't know where to start with him, he seems lost.
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:icontortellinipen:
TortelliniPen Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2013
I think that the GOP is in a dangerous position, and the last election highlighted this. They're relying on a shrinking base, and they're definitely on the wrong side of history as far as reproductive rights and gay rights go (just as Southern Democrats were on the issue of civil rights). The latter isn't necessarily important for things such as the economy, but you aren't going to get much sympathy (or many votes) by playing the villain.

Perhaps it's easier to see weaknesses from the other side. I've been repeatedly told that the Democrats are in no better state than the Republicans, or will soon be worse. However, to me the Democrats seem relatively safe; minorities are much more likely to vote for them, while more and more people favor progressive views on civil issues such as gay rights. And nobody can deny that the behavior of Congressional Republicans has been churlish at best and obstructive at worst. They displayed a stunning unwillingness to work with the president, with some even doing ridiculous things like suggest that Obama was from Kenya.

Then again, one has to remember that 47% of the nation still preferred the Republicans. The Democrats didn't take the House. The GOP isn't going to become a niche party anytime soon, and people such as Marco Rubio and Chris Christie have an excellent chance in 2016 against the likes of Clinton (I personally wouldn't mind Christie, although that's irrelevant). When you think about it, these politicians only act the way they do because that's how their voters want them to act; otherwise they wouldn't vote for them.

What I think that the GOP needs to do is to focus much less on their hypocritical moral crusades and to expel the more militant of Tea Partiers. Akin would've likely won his election if he hadn't gone blabbering on about legitimate rape or whatever. They need to focus more on economics, where they're strong. Start appeasing to libertarians like Ron Paul and gather some of the Reddit crowd right from underneath the left's nose. Of course I want my side to win, but America is all about people being able to express opinions that I disagree with. Besides, competition is good for all parties.
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:iconjackmolotov3:
JackMolotov3 Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2013  Hobbyist Photographer
" they're definitely on the wrong side of history as far as reproductive rights and gay rights go"

By that logic the Democratic Party should have ended after the civil war, and gone down in history as the worst most oppressive regime until the Nazis showed up 70 years later. Because they were definitely on the wrong side of the slavery issue in 1865. The rest of the western world outlawed slavery in the 1830s. The top half of the US long before that, around the early 1800s.

Fact is Americans have the political memory of a goldfish, and parties change overnight.

"However, to me the Democrats seem relatively safe;"
In the short term. In the long term anything can happen.

"minorities are much more likely to vote for them"
At this moment. That was my point against the OP. He fails to realize that some minorities can go either way. I think we've both agreed that the republicans could get a serious portion of the hispanic population if they tried. They didn't try last time, but that doesn't mean they won't try in the future.

As you've said earlier, as the traditional conservative base dries up, the republicans are just going to look elsewhere, and adapt their politics. Its that simple. Republicans, like all politicians do or say things to get votes. Its unreasonable to think that they won't got after a new base once the old one dries up.

Catholics and Jews used to be democratic strongholds, now they are split. Muslims, before 9/11 came out and voted for Bush the first time around.

After the war on terror dies down, and immigration is settled, both Islam and Hispanics will be pretty big minorities with conservative votes.(my prediction)

"And nobody can deny that the behavior of Congressional Republicans has been churlish at best and obstructive at worst."

This is a larger subset of mainstream politics in general has been extremely standoffish as of late. The democrats are no better. I scares me to an extent. All of it. This is why I vote third party.

That said, its been worse in history, as no one in congress has threatened to shoot one another, yet.(to all potential congressmen, please don't start).

"What I think that the GOP needs to do"

What they need to do is find a new base. What they are going to do is find a new base. Then adjust politics to pander to that base.
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:iconscottahemi:
ScottaHemi Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
that's just what you think.

just like Omega.
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:iconkiwi-punch:
Kiwi-Punch Featured By Owner Feb 23, 2013  Student Digital Artist
I love those posters.
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:iconebolabears:
EbolaBears Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013
Check that guy's gallery, posters forever!
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:iconmeanus:
meanus Featured By Owner Feb 24, 2013
they are great propaganda
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:iconmeanus:
meanus Featured By Owner Feb 23, 2013
if they are doing so badly why does Obama blame everything on them??????

democrats are behind on
fifteen trillion dollar debt
no budget
massive borrowing
Obama is the foodstamps president
high unemployment
high gas prices
new 800 billion dollar tax called Obamacare
total collapse of a middle east policy
900 billion dollar debt in democrat stronghold california
Illinois incredibly corrupt and has massive debt
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