It's pretty sad to think that democrats may take over. I myself am not republican but rather a libertarian. I hope in the next few years more parties will rise which voice our peoples' opinions accurately. Its scary to think that one party might eventually rule the USA, they would have too much power and power is not necessarily a good thing. I foresee a civil war coming.
I find it laughable how quickly Americans just to armed conflict being a result of their politics... No you won't have a civil war, other groups will come in and fill the gaps. Either the Republicans will change out of necessity or new parties will come. Ultimately if one party adapts and the other refuses to, then the one that refuses to should die out, just as with evolution.
The best solution would be to introduce a proportional representation system. Then new parties can come and go, split or form with much more freedom and still get a share of the vote.
I'm a 34-year old hardworking white rural male -- the type of voter that the Republican Party ought to be getting. Yet because of how crazy they've become over the last two decades, i would rather whittle my d**k off with a carrot peeler rather than vote for a Republican.
I don't know where to start with this ignominious mess of fail, and short sightedness.
"These forecasts are based on extremely simple math: Take the current rates of turnout and party preference for the four major racial and ethnic groups" This is where the flaw in logic starts.
If at any point, the democrats had the nation so far under there thumb, the republics where doomed, it was in the 1960s, under JFK/LBJ.
You make the assumption the republicans simply won't change their politics overnight as a strategic move, or simply ignore things they've said 1 1/2 years prior. Because this is par for the course, and the democrats were pretty effective at doing this, and the republicans already have the talent in this field.
you may be correct, the republican momentum of 2010 has peaked, but by no means are the republicans out of the game.
Texas is 25% blue, right now. Texas in 2020 and 2024 will be pushing the whole State blue.
It's all about paying attention to the details.
Some States, like Montana and the like, might stay red forever because of the populations. But the Dakotas with their energy boom, well they're going to swing blue too because of the people moving to those States for jobs.
I certainly believe that if the republicans don't change their ways, they will be run out and a new party will take it's place (most likely the Libertarians).
They need to flush out the Tea Party and they need to stop listening to idiots like Dick Morris. They think the only reason Obama won was because he was black, not because he was a better candidate than McCain or Romney.
The Libertarians are mainly Republicans already. So it's not going to be much of a change. The Republican Libertarians are not real libertarians. They're still in the pocket of the rich and big business, they're still religiously attached to abortion prevention, they're still climate change skeptics.
Real libertarians are worse then far lefties, but maybe on par with far righties. Just like the other two camps, it's not a moderate centrist position that allows for compromise and cooperation. Removing government agencies like the EPA and allowing the States to operate as majority rule mini-nations is an automatic disaster.
Market forces that apply to businesses also apply to political parties. If the political demographic in the US moves left, the GOP will eventually smell the coffee and move towards the centre, and the Dems will move as far left as their electorate will let them. The US is too entrenched in bi-party politics to accommodate any other solution.
not necessarily. Thats assuming the democrats hold the hispanic vote until 2024.
Romney got 1/3 the Hispanic vote ignoring the population, and there are many prominent republican Hispanics, like Mark Rubio.
Reagan got the Hispanic vote in the 1980s when pandering to them. Its very obvious to any serious political observer that the republicans are very capable of winning the Hispanic vote, if they put the time in.
I think its clear your brain cannot process politics beyond cheering for your "team". This is getting more and more common.
I think that the GOP is in a dangerous position, and the last election highlighted this. They're relying on a shrinking base, and they're definitely on the wrong side of history as far as reproductive rights and gay rights go (just as Southern Democrats were on the issue of civil rights). The latter isn't necessarily important for things such as the economy, but you aren't going to get much sympathy (or many votes) by playing the villain.
Perhaps it's easier to see weaknesses from the other side. I've been repeatedly told that the Democrats are in no better state than the Republicans, or will soon be worse. However, to me the Democrats seem relatively safe; minorities are much more likely to vote for them, while more and more people favor progressive views on civil issues such as gay rights. And nobody can deny that the behavior of Congressional Republicans has been churlish at best and obstructive at worst. They displayed a stunning unwillingness to work with the president, with some even doing ridiculous things like suggest that Obama was from Kenya.
Then again, one has to remember that 47% of the nation still preferred the Republicans. The Democrats didn't take the House. The GOP isn't going to become a niche party anytime soon, and people such as Marco Rubio and Chris Christie have an excellent chance in 2016 against the likes of Clinton (I personally wouldn't mind Christie, although that's irrelevant). When you think about it, these politicians only act the way they do because that's how their voters want them to act; otherwise they wouldn't vote for them.
What I think that the GOP needs to do is to focus much less on their hypocritical moral crusades and to expel the more militant of Tea Partiers. Akin would've likely won his election if he hadn't gone blabbering on about legitimate rape or whatever. They need to focus more on economics, where they're strong. Start appeasing to libertarians like Ron Paul and gather some of the Reddit crowd right from underneath the left's nose. Of course I want my side to win, but America is all about people being able to express opinions that I disagree with. Besides, competition is good for all parties.
" they're definitely on the wrong side of history as far as reproductive rights and gay rights go"
By that logic the Democratic Party should have ended after the civil war, and gone down in history as the worst most oppressive regime until the Nazis showed up 70 years later. Because they were definitely on the wrong side of the slavery issue in 1865. The rest of the western world outlawed slavery in the 1830s. The top half of the US long before that, around the early 1800s.
Fact is Americans have the political memory of a goldfish, and parties change overnight.
"However, to me the Democrats seem relatively safe;" In the short term. In the long term anything can happen.
"minorities are much more likely to vote for them" At this moment. That was my point against the OP. He fails to realize that some minorities can go either way. I think we've both agreed that the republicans could get a serious portion of the hispanic population if they tried. They didn't try last time, but that doesn't mean they won't try in the future.
As you've said earlier, as the traditional conservative base dries up, the republicans are just going to look elsewhere, and adapt their politics. Its that simple. Republicans, like all politicians do or say things to get votes. Its unreasonable to think that they won't got after a new base once the old one dries up.
Catholics and Jews used to be democratic strongholds, now they are split. Muslims, before 9/11 came out and voted for Bush the first time around.
After the war on terror dies down, and immigration is settled, both Islam and Hispanics will be pretty big minorities with conservative votes.(my prediction)
"And nobody can deny that the behavior of Congressional Republicans has been churlish at best and obstructive at worst."
This is a larger subset of mainstream politics in general has been extremely standoffish as of late. The democrats are no better. I scares me to an extent. All of it. This is why I vote third party.
That said, its been worse in history, as no one in congress has threatened to shoot one another, yet.(to all potential congressmen, please don't start).
"What I think that the GOP needs to do"
What they need to do is find a new base. What they are going to do is find a new base. Then adjust politics to pander to that base.
if they are doing so badly why does Obama blame everything on them??????
democrats are behind on fifteen trillion dollar debt no budget massive borrowing Obama is the foodstamps president high unemployment high gas prices new 800 billion dollar tax called Obamacare total collapse of a middle east policy 900 billion dollar debt in democrat stronghold california Illinois incredibly corrupt and has massive debt