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November 5, 2012
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Predictions

:iconrockstar1009:
rockstar1009 Featured By Owner Nov 5, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
Well, get to it bitches. You think you're so smart, now's your chance to prove it. :la:

Who's going to win which races during the U.S.'s Election Day tomorrow? Which major upsets do you predict? Which swings states break for who?
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:iconsubbie-overlord:
Subbie-Overlord Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
Romney takes the Carolinas and Virginia. Too close to call in Florida. Loses Ohio by a percent.
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:iconredmarlin:
redmarlin Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
Simple - Obama has Ohio, Obama will become president. Whoever wins Ohio wins presidency. It's never failed.
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:iconrockstar1009:
rockstar1009 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
No, we've voted (R) in FDR's and Kennedy's races (and Grover Cleveland's races, but the 19th century isn't as relevant as the 20th). Dems have won without Ohio, but Reps have never accomplished the feat.

There's a first for everything, though. If Obama keeps Ohio, Romney can sweep the other swings and still win. It's unlikely, but still completely possible.
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:iconzcochrane:
ZCochrane Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student Photographer
"It's never failed" is not really a good argument, though: [link]
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:iconredmarlin:
redmarlin Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
I'm just saying, if you look at the history, ever since Ohio's become a state, whichever candidate has won in that state has always gone on to win. Of course it's possible that it won't happen, but I'd bet a buck or two that it would happen again this year.
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:iconkitsumekat:
kitsumekat Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
it's not looking so good for Obama right now. He does have Ohio so far.
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:iconrockstar1009:
rockstar1009 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
Nah, him being neck and neck with Romney is expected at this point: [link]

At this point, Romney only has one hefty state left (Texas), while Obama still has several (New York, California, more than likely Pennsylvania). We'll know for sure it's looking good or bad for a given candidate once the swings start getting called, which won't happen for another hour or two.
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:iconkitsumekat:
kitsumekat Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
78 to 82 votes. 3 vs. 3 states.
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:iconrockstar1009:
rockstar1009 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
Based on Fox's current map, Obama's gained a few counties since 2004 but lost only one. Franklin County (where I live) hasn't been reported yet, but as the seat of the capital and home of OSU it's only going to move the votes for Obama even more.

With only 20% reporting, it's still up in the air, but I have a strong feeling that Obama's going to take Ohio.
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:iconkitsumekat:
kitsumekat Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
He's had Ohio, Florida, and New hamshire. I can't believe Michigan is for Romney.
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:iconrockstar1009:
rockstar1009 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
Well it was for Romney, but Fox just called Michigan for Obama.

Casey has been called as the winner in the PA Senate race, which gives hope to Obama there.
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:iconkitsumekat:
kitsumekat Featured By Owner Nov 7, 2012
Well, Obama is re-elected until they finishe up with the vote count.
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:iconrockstar1009:
rockstar1009 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
Bill O'Reilly is already using Sandy as an excuse for Romney's (potential) failure. :la:
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:iconpicturefragments:
picturefragments Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Traditional Artist
I predict Obama will take an early lead, then fall way behind when all the republicans get off work.
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:iconliberty-4-all:
liberty-4-all Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
Obama's finished.

7:00 - Virginia - Tied
7:30 - Ohio - Obama +4
8:00 - Pennsylvania - Obama +4
8:00 - New Hampshire - Obama +3
9:00 - Colorado - Tied


2004 exit polls:

Virginia - Bush +1 (final result Bush +8)
Ohio - Kerry +4 (final result Bush +2)
Pennsylvania - Kerry +19 (final result Kerry +1)
New Hampshire - Kerry +17 (final result Kerry +1)
Colorado - Bush +3 (final result Bush +4)
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:iconrockstar1009:
rockstar1009 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
Exit polls? Good luck with that, then... :roll:
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:icondebra-marie:
Debra-Marie Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Artisan Crafter
JetBlue has this promotion going on where you tell them which party you will vote for, and if your candidate loses, you get put into a drawing where 10,000 people will win free plane tickets. So.......I almost want my candidate to lose. xD (not really)
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:iconjulieanne714226:
julieanne714226 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student General Artist
Obama is obviously the winner here. there is more lower/lower- middle class then upper class and he actually cares about the citizens and tries his best, sorry haters but he rarely lies only his ideas don't go through our system and pass as laws due to the other idiots in government. while he is the obvious choice i do not put down people voting for mitt, we are all different and deserve to be heard. (go obama for saying how he just wants everyone to vote no matter who they vote for)
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:iconjazzlizard:
JazzLizard Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Digital Artist
Obama, he's ahead in the polls, and seems to be winning people's favor back in the final hours.
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:iconiiskookie:
iiskookie Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student Traditional Artist
Obama, since he is not a racist son of a bitch.
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:icontbschemer:
TBSchemer Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
If you think Obama isn't a racist son of a bitch, then you haven't been paying attention.
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:iconrockstar1009:
rockstar1009 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
OP has to set himself up for failure, too, so here are my calls:

Obama wins at least 280 EVs and a second term. WI, PA and MI are solid and he takes CO, IA and NV as well. He'll win Ohio (but without my vote :la:). My first wildcard prediction is that O takes Virginia as well, causing great panic in the GOP as the heart of the Confederacy continues on its bluing trend. Romney takes FL and NC. Possibly NH.

In the senate, Sherrod Brown pimpslaps the taste out of Josh Mandel's mouth in OH (this time with the help of my vote :la:), Warren, Nelson, and Murphy win their races and the Dems walk away with 52 (or 53) seats in the Senate. Second wildcard prediction: one of the rape candidates (Akin or Mourdock) will eke out a narrow victory, much to the dismay of people with sense and causes the rest of the world to grow even more annoyed with Unitedstatesian conservatives. :facepalm:

Dems pick up some (R) seats in the House, but the House stays red for a long time to come.

Tonight (possibly tomorrow, depending on when the media's calls are made), a long-winded thread is posted by Schemer about how this country is irredeemable and he's moving to Oz, but the thread gets locked for being journal material. Novuso posts conspiracy threads about voting inconsistencies while ZOKMAN gets into shouting matches with everyone with even a tiny smirk on their face. Wildcard prediction: meanus outs himself and admits which lib regular he is, admitting he's been trolling for the lulz OR alt wildcard: meanus flip flops and starts trolling Romney's loss to piss off the conservatives.
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:iconempiredice:
empiredice Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
Oh you've got the best one for sure, that last paragraph...:icondatassplz:
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:iconzcochrane:
ZCochrane Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student Photographer
I thought some more, and I'd like to amend my prediction: I believe Republicans will create excel tables that show Romney has won in a landslide, as long as you adjust the vote results so that the relation between democrats and republicans is exactly what they believe it should be, instead of what the results actually are.
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:iconskulkey:
skulkey Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Digital Artist
i'm gonna go out on a limb and say Elizabeth Warren beats Scott Brown.
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:iconjazzlizard:
JazzLizard Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Digital Artist
I really hope she does, as a Bostonian born and raised, she's what we need so much more than Brown.
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:iconskulkey:
skulkey Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Digital Artist
yeah, we need another lion like Teddy.
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:iconmgonzales041090:
mgonzales041090 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student Traditional Artist
Hardly a limb. She's leading in polls.
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:iconskulkey:
skulkey Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Digital Artist
i don't pay much attention to polls. i just try to gauge people's feelings.
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:iconmgonzales041090:
mgonzales041090 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student Traditional Artist
Then your responses will be skewed based on the leanings of the majority of people on said forum. Most people here lean left.
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:iconskulkey:
skulkey Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Digital Artist
no, not by this forum. IRL. people aren't buying Brown's "i'm independent" bullshit, and they're sick of his attack ads on Warren.
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:iconartman40:
Artman40 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
I bet Obamney wins by 99% like in Soviet Union.
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:icondebra-marie:
Debra-Marie Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Hobbyist Artisan Crafter
In America, you watch television. In Soviet Union, television watch you.
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:iconempiredice:
empiredice Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
Obama wins by an upset not in swing states, but the unexpected twist of favor from an established red state, possibly influenced by the hurricane; both candidates lose significant votes to not one but two third party candidates, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein; a Democratic congress with close Dem & Rep representation and an influx of various third party and unaffiliated in the Senate and House respectively; and voter machine hackers make a statement about voting machine vulnerability by successfully electing Nikki Minaj president (this is, however, discounted as it is successful in demonstration, but leads to introspection of our voting system over the next term.)

Hey it could happen. We should all give llamas to whoever makes the most accurate prediction. :la:
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:iconzcochrane:
ZCochrane Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student Photographer
In a completely unexpected and unprecedented move, Nate Silver gets elected president of the United States.
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:icontbschemer:
TBSchemer Featured By Owner Nov 5, 2012
Romney wins FL, NC, VA, NH, PA early on. Ohio remains a nail-biter, but it doesn't matter anymore. MI becomes an upset, and with my help, WI is too (just like Scott Walker's recent victory). MN and Iowa become the new Dem holdouts. CO and NV split along the Rocky Mountains. Oregon makes itself a 2016 battleground.
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:iconjulieanne714226:
julieanne714226 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student General Artist
MI is going obama, living here i know that people who live the way people do here will chose him and that we have a few grudges against people like mitt (republicans)
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:iconempiredice:
empiredice Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
I think the "split" between NV and CO you're referring to is UT, the only red in a sea of blue out here...the Rockies don't run in NV, that's the Sierra Nevadas there. There may be a split along the Rockies though, but I doubt it - more likely the split if any will be city vs rural interests, where the usual "war" of interests out here are.
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:iconajglass:
AJGlass Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Artisan Crafter
I'm currently in MI.

I'm thinking MI will go to Obama - especially if Detroiters turn out en mass (which is likely?).

Romney's auto bailout comments and the racist comment concerning Colin Powell have really struck a chord with lots of the auto folks and minorities here. Apparently there's nothing like a racist remark to motivate some folks to vote.

On a personal note, I voted this morning and the line was actually longer than it was for the 2008 race. This could also have something to do with the constitutional amendments on the ballot - especially two concerning union rights and one concerning building a new Michigan/Canadian bridge. Both issues were widely touted (both for and against) in TV commercials, radio ads, and even freeway billboards.

The big drawback to voting here right now is how long the ballot itself is. I've heard it said by the media that the ballot is the longest one ever in Michigan's history. It took me personally 20 minutes to read it and fill it out, and I'm highly educated. So it will likely take other folks (especially those with less reading and comprehension skills) longer to do so. So on average, with the lines as they are, it will likely take most folks at least an hour to vote - probably longer in some of the bigger districts. So with that in mind, Michigan's election results will likely be late coming in with a final count. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not until early morning on Wednesday before we get a sense of where things stand.
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:iconkitsumekat:
kitsumekat Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
I heard a lot from a Detroiter. I believe your prediction might come true.
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:icontbschemer:
TBSchemer Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
Detroit. Detroit.
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:iconkitsumekat:
kitsumekat Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
What the hell do you want dinglebum?
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:icontbschemer:
TBSchemer Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
Pointing out that black people vote for Obama because he's black is like pointing out that white people wear sunscreen at the beach because they burn. It's not racist to point it out when 90% of blacks are voting for the black guy.
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:iconajglass:
AJGlass Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Artisan Crafter
It's not racist to point it out when 90% of blacks are voting for the black guy.

It is wrong to come to such a conclusion that because a candidate is black, then blacks will support him. One need only look at the lack of black support for Herman Cain, a black Republican, in his bid for the Republican nomination to see that it's not true.
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:icontbschemer:
TBSchemer Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012
It is wrong to come to such a conclusion that because a candidate is black, then blacks will support him.

...except when 96% of blacks voted for him 4 years ago.
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:iconmgonzales041090:
mgonzales041090 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Student Traditional Artist
I agree except on PA. Obama leads Romney in all polls well beyond the margin of error in some. MI and WI both have Obama leading. Same with Nevada. Ohio is where it matters (where Obama leads in all polls). All Obama needs to secure 270 is Ohio, plus 1 at MI or WI since he's virtually already secured PA and Nevada. That's 270.
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:iconnokari:
nokari Featured By Owner Nov 5, 2012  Professional Interface Designer
I want to start an Intrade on the odds that TBSchemer loses his mind.
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:iconcrimsonmagpie:
CrimsonMagpie Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2012  Professional Traditional Artist
I'll put money on that!
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:icontortellinipen:
TortelliniPen Featured By Owner Nov 5, 2012
Obama wins the electoral vote handily, but loses the popular vote by a slim margin. Also, the /pol/ board will be a lot of fun for the next couple of days regardless result.

inb4 269/269
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:iconnovuso:
Novuso Featured By Owner Nov 5, 2012
My current prediction is the election won't end tomorrow. Obama is going to use Hurricane Sandy to extend the election. [link]

The day will end with Romney in the lead but the election won't be over. Expect a bigger fiasco than the 2000 Florida Recount.
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