Actually the numbers in Virginia were/are closer than that. It's my home state and for a while Romney was ahead here. Obama's lead in the last few weeks has only been by one, two, or three points, all within the MOE. Let's just say at least his lead here has never been like it was in Ohio. Then again, Virginia has a 5.2% unemployment rate so factors besides the economy may be accounting for that.
Granted, I've already voted for Obama. Not going to pretend it'll be a landslide for him here tho; I'm just thinking he's going to win anyhow (hoping for such, anyhow).
In my opinion, Nevada isn't even a swing state anymore. Obama should also win Ohio barring a fluke; he's been leading by a statistically significant margin for quite a while now. Romney has paths to 270 without Ohio, but none of them are very probable. Assuming that Obama will win Pennsylvania's 20 votes (which he almost certainly will according to RCP: [link]), then he only needs Wisconsin (very likely: [link] Wisconsin tends to elect Republican governors and Democratic presidents) and Michigan (not as likely in my opinion, but Detroit is there and Obama is leading [link]) to clinch it (assuming Nevada goes blue yet again, of course).
Assume the worst-case scenario: Obama loses Ohio. Romney still needs Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and either Colorado or New Hampshire. It's certainly possible that Romney will one or two of those states. Hell, I'm willing to concede that Florida is going red this year, although if Romney loses Florida then its already over for him (If Obama wins Florida and Pennsylvania, then Romney cannot win without winning either Ohio or New Hampshire + Nevada, along with every other swing state.) If Obama were to win Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, then he would only need one swing state, any swing state, and Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada are all polling Obama leads.
I mean, Romney certainly has a chance to win. I'd rather he not win, but there's a definite chance. However, it looks like Obama has much better chances. I'd say that its partly thanks to his well-received response to Sandy as well as his excellent 3rd debate performance.
I don't think Obama will win NC. Given that I live here, and recently had a drive accross part of the state- and considering how the polls have averaged- and the number of Romney or republican signs I saw- I just doubt it. Not that dem turnout hasn't been high- we've actually beaten republicans in early voting apparently by 17 points. But election day itself is tough- and is the reason Ohio is at risk. The long lines in Ohio are like after-Thanksgiving shopping day. In 2004 and again in 2008 they turned people away by the thousands. It will happen again- and the tea bag governor made sure they would close down early voting locations and make it harder- or illegal when possible- to vote without the proper party affiliation. I sort of expect WI to be in Obama's hands. I don't expect anything from Florida- that place is a mess. I have my eye on Virginia. Honestly this whole thing is like a repeat of 2004, except Moron Mitt gets to play Asshat Kerry this time.
I'm not holding my breath for NC either. Even Nate Silver is giving that to Romney, and he thinks that Obama's winning Florida (again, possible, but definitely a stretch).
However, if Obama does lose Ohio, then he could pick up Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Virginia, and then any other state (likely Iowa or New Hampshire) to win. What makes this different than Romney's path without Ohio is that Obama is leading in pretty much all of these states. Meanwhile, its almost literally impossible for Romney to win without Florida, and I think that Obama has more of a chance at Florida than Romney has at Ohio. (If you give Obama Florida and Romney Ohio, then it still turns out much better for Obama)
However, if Obama wins Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Hampshire with Romney taking Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, then the vote would be tied at 269 apiece. Hilarity would ensue as the House would elect Romney as President and the Senate would elect Biden as VP, and for the next four years we would have the greatest sitcom in the history of the world. Unfortunately, statistics show only a 0.2% chance of that happening.