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November 5, 2012


Replies: 7

President Obama leading in Ohio, Virginia, and Nationally- And leading Gallup. All over for Mitt?

Hmmm... well the previous topics seem to have died since it appears perhaps our resident right wingers have given up all hope?
I kinda knew it was over when a huge storm blew through the northeast and Obama went up there to do, ya know, his job- while Mitt was also helping out- IN OHIO!!!!
Yet it seems the right-leaning Gallup poll has been clung to with seething desperation on the part of tea baggers and other conservatards- so since it's now the night before Election Day I took a look at gallup to see what's up- surely they can't have moron Mitt in first place?
Guess what folks: they don't. Obama leads in the Gallup poll: [link]
Not only that, his approval rating is 52%!!! So, if people who answer these polling calls are answering that they approve of the president DURING ELECTION TIME by a 52% margin- how do you end up with him losing that election tomorrow? And how does the 52% approval in the same polling website also have a 3% drop for the election?
Oh- I forgot- "Likely voters". So what's that mean? That empirical? What's a 'likely voter'? Could it be something different to the Gallup pollster than to everyone else? A Yes or a No vote over a phone line is pretty straightforward- you just decide to keep running calls til you get the numbers ya want. But trying to create a category of "likely voters" seems like an attempt to create a fake data set to try and advertise a false edge for moron Mitt. It's usually easy to spot that someting is wrong when you have Approval rating- a nationally recognized poll run every month since the 1940s- and it says one thing, then registered voters says something different- and suddenly another category of likely voters suddenly shows the other candidate ahead. I guess if we add that 3% margin of error back to Obama's 48 we almost get there- and it matches the Approval rating more closely!

The only reason I was suspicious is that, pretty much all the other polls listed conveniently here:


seem to show Obama either tied or ahead. And in Ohio and Virginia he's leading pretty solid- browse the linked website and see lists of various polls. Decide which ones you think are skewed and go ahead and believe the others- either way you still get a lead for Obama in most battleground states and nationally.
So here's my question- are conservatards so confident they're going to win because they know they get to vote multiple times? Or they know in Texas and a few other states that it's illegal for anyone other than a GOP member to vote? The problem with that confidence is that the Electoral College exists. That's means there are many other states whose votes get counted. And with a 3 point lead- you'll have to throw out so many votes in Ohio- and make sure they're all votes for Obama- to get that state on your side. And that sounds like a Mexican rigged election to me. Not that I think conservatards have a problem with this- not at all. But it doesn't look like Ohio's gonna do that?


Nov. 2-4, 2012 -- Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change








Nov. 1-4, 2012

Registered Voters







Nov 1-4, 2012

Likely Voters







(oh and what about 3% undecided here? The day before election day- undecided? Or just a caller that was confused by the bullshit phrased question they were being asked? :nod: )

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Devious Comments

fngrscr8dstroui Nov 6, 2012  Professional General Artist
Actually the numbers in Virginia were/are closer than that. It's my home state and for a while Romney was ahead here. Obama's lead in the last few weeks has only been by one, two, or three points, all within the MOE. Let's just say at least his lead here has never been like it was in Ohio. Then again, Virginia has a 5.2% unemployment rate so factors besides the economy may be accounting for that.

Granted, I've already voted for Obama. Not going to pretend it'll be a landslide for him here tho; I'm just thinking he's going to win anyhow (hoping for such, anyhow).
You don't know what likely voters are?
In my opinion, Nevada isn't even a swing state anymore. Obama should also win Ohio barring a fluke; he's been leading by a statistically significant margin for quite a while now. Romney has paths to 270 without Ohio, but none of them are very probable. Assuming that Obama will win Pennsylvania's 20 votes (which he almost certainly will according to RCP: [link]), then he only needs Wisconsin (very likely: [link] Wisconsin tends to elect Republican governors and Democratic presidents) and Michigan (not as likely in my opinion, but Detroit is there and Obama is leading [link]) to clinch it (assuming Nevada goes blue yet again, of course).

Assume the worst-case scenario: Obama loses Ohio. Romney still needs Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and either Colorado or New Hampshire. It's certainly possible that Romney will one or two of those states. Hell, I'm willing to concede that Florida is going red this year, although if Romney loses Florida then its already over for him (If Obama wins Florida and Pennsylvania, then Romney cannot win without winning either Ohio or New Hampshire + Nevada, along with every other swing state.) If Obama were to win Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, then he would only need one swing state, any swing state, and Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada are all polling Obama leads.

I mean, Romney certainly has a chance to win. I'd rather he not win, but there's a definite chance. However, it looks like Obama has much better chances. I'd say that its partly thanks to his well-received response to Sandy as well as his excellent 3rd debate performance.
I don't think Obama will win NC. Given that I live here, and recently had a drive accross part of the state- and considering how the polls have averaged- and the number of Romney or republican signs I saw- I just doubt it. Not that dem turnout hasn't been high- we've actually beaten republicans in early voting apparently by 17 points. But election day itself is tough- and is the reason Ohio is at risk. The long lines in Ohio are like after-Thanksgiving shopping day. In 2004 and again in 2008 they turned people away by the thousands. It will happen again- and the tea bag governor made sure they would close down early voting locations and make it harder- or illegal when possible- to vote without the proper party affiliation. I sort of expect WI to be in Obama's hands. I don't expect anything from Florida- that place is a mess. I have my eye on Virginia. Honestly this whole thing is like a repeat of 2004, except Moron Mitt gets to play Asshat Kerry this time.
I'm not holding my breath for NC either. Even Nate Silver is giving that to Romney, and he thinks that Obama's winning Florida (again, possible, but definitely a stretch).

However, if Obama does lose Ohio, then he could pick up Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Virginia, and then any other state (likely Iowa or New Hampshire) to win. What makes this different than Romney's path without Ohio is that Obama is leading in pretty much all of these states. Meanwhile, its almost literally impossible for Romney to win without Florida, and I think that Obama has more of a chance at Florida than Romney has at Ohio. (If you give Obama Florida and Romney Ohio, then it still turns out much better for Obama)

However, if Obama wins Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Hampshire with Romney taking Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, then the vote would be tied at 269 apiece. Hilarity would ensue as the House would elect Romney as President and the Senate would elect Biden as VP, and for the next four years we would have the greatest sitcom in the history of the world. Unfortunately, statistics show only a 0.2% chance of that happening.

Some men just want to watch the world burn.
I have a feeling murphy's law will come into place.
I dearly hope its over for Mitt. He's been flopping like a fish out of water, someone either needs to kill him off or put him in a bowl.
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